Blatant Plagiarism …. by me – Worst Tech Predictions ever

I read this one over at Scientific American (written by David Pogue – I love his articles) and just had to plagiarize it .. it is to good!



“Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.'”—David Pogue, The New York Times, 2006Image: Wikimedia Commons/Linux insidev2

Supplemental Material

  • In my Scientific American column this month, I pondered why it’s so hard to predict the future of technology. It sometimes seems as though it’s not even worth the effort; inevitably you wind up looking like an idiot.

Especially if the gist of your prediction is that something won’t happen or isn’t possible. You wind up with enough egg on your face to make an omelet.

If you’re not convinced, have a look at these whoppers: some of the biggest muffed tech predictions of all time, and spoken by people you’d expect would know better.

“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”—Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com and inventor of Ethernet, writing in a 1995 InfoWorldcolumn

Metcalfe is well aware how silly his prediction came to look. He ate his words—literally. In 1999, addressing the Sixth International WWW Conference, Metcalfe put a copy of his infamous column into a blender, pureed it, and drank it.

“There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States.”—T.A.M. Craven, Federal Communications Commission commissioner (1961)

Needless to say, Mr. Craven is no longer the commissioner of the FCC.

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”—Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

Of course, Watson was referring to room-size mega-machines filled with vacuum tubes. But still.

“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.”—Sir William Preece, chief engineer, British Post Office, 1876

How’re the messenger boys working out for you, England?

“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.”—Western Union internal memo, 1876.

Oops! Western Union sent its last telegram in 2006.

“Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”—Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946

He was right. We’ve moved on to aluminum and plastic.

“Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.'”—David Pogue, The New York Times, 2006

Yeah, Okay. I’ll admit it. My prediction was wrong—but my thinking was right. I knew that Steve Jobs would never tolerate the micromanagement that the carriers (Verizon, AT&T and so on) then exercised on every aspect of every phone they carried. “I cannot imagine Apple giving veto power to anyone over its software design. It just ain’t gonna happen,” I wrote.

What I didn’t realize, of course, is that Jobs planned an end-run—a deal that Cingular ultimately accepted, which ran like this: “You let us design our phone without your input, and I’ll give you a five-year exclusive.” And the rest is history.

The Bill Gates Collection

Maybe the most quoted bad tech prediction of all time never really happened. It’s the famous 1981 Bill Gates quote: “640K ought to be enough for anybody.” Unfortunately, there’s no evidence that he ever actually said that (and he emphatically denies that he did).

That doesn’t let Mr. Gates off the hook, though—he’s made plenty of doozies.

* World Economic Forum, 2004: “Two years from now, spam will be solved.”

Today, spam accounts for over 90 percent of all e-mail sent.

Technotics launches new web site – announces new cloud services

I read this post early this morning in the train on my way to work.

HIGH TIME Andy and Rob did this!

Both Andy and Rob are well known in the Lotus/IBM community for their expertiese, experience, vision and skill. I think with this new offering Technotics is hitting the nerve of the Shakespearian question many clients face: “To go, or not to go.” What I particularly like is that they preface the whole process with a fact finding session/process that first tries to answer the more important queestion: namely where to actually go to (= the goal, the required outcome, the Nirvana destination). Otherwise the experience would be akin to trying to go on vacation without determining where to go before you leave and trying to get all the reservations done on the way to the airport – and changing the departure airport you have to get to while you are sitting in the car.

I wish them the best of luck – though knowing them they probably have this process nailed down to the point where they can get out of bed at 10 AM, have a coffee, do a little bit of magic/pixie dust work and then go fishing in the afternoon followed by some phone calls before dinner (can you hear the envy in my vitual voice?)

If you are a company looking for assistance – go talk to Andy. If you are a tech guy/girl who was aproached by a client – send them to Andy and Rob, you will be pleased with the outcome.

Full Disclosure: no rodents (virtual or real) where harmed in the course of this blog post and I am NOT involved in Technotics in any way – (hint, hint, hint) . . .

Websphere Technote: Application Server does not start – OSGi permission issue

This one just came in via a feed. I ran into this recently during my first forray into WAS 8 … The errors kicking in were a great way to develop my shaky WAS confidence. I solved it because i deal with Linux allot and access rights/file rights are a commkn problem when a team use different/personal IDs when installing systems instead of a common account. Both are acceptable as long as everybody plays by the rules.

For my friends from the Domino world this is similar to a Domino server not having the correct rights to system databases and therfor crashing. Does not happen often but is can.

WAS is not hard, jump in and learn!